ELECTION NIGHT SURPRISES?

These election night predictions are courtesy of the Washington Post's "Topic A".

DICK MORRIS AND EILEEN MCGANN

Dick Morris advised Bill Clinton's 1996 reelection campaign and is a contributor to Fox News; Eileen McGann, a lawyer, is co-author with Morris of "Fleeced"

"It does not matter how wide or narrow the gap is between the two candidates. What matters is how far above or below 49 percent Obama is in the final polls (49 percent assumes that Ralph Nader gets 1 to 2 points as he did in 2004). Right now, Obama is straddling the 49 percent mark; about half the polls put him over it and half under it. If the final polling numbers indicate that Obama is not convincingly north of 49 percent, we are in for a long night."

JAMES CARVILLE

Manager of Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign; CNN political contributor

Extraordinary youth turnout will surprise many, but it shouldn't. Young voters will vote overwhelmingly Democratic up and down the ballot in record numbers. As for a surprise on Tuesday, the combination of Ralph Nader and Bob Barr's votes will affect the outcome of the presidential election in one or more states.

HEATHER WILSON

Republican representative from New Mexico

Usually, the "undecideds" who show up in polling break pretty evenly when both candidates are well known. This year's "undecideds" are generally older, more rural, voted for Bush over Kerry, and they are concerned about Obama's inexperience and liberal views. The undecideds will break toward John McCain.

ED ROGERS

White House staffer to Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush; group chairman of BGR Holding

By all accounts McCain is behind but closing in on Obama, who appears to be stronger in the electoral college than in the popular vote. It's not pretty for McCain, but it's not over. Three ingredients could be mixing to create an explosive comeback for McCain. No. 1: buyer's remorse and resentment of the media forecast. Voters are being lectured that the election is over. This might cause them to have regrets about Obama and resent being told what they had already decided. No. 2: presumptuousness by the Obama camp. More than once they have shown a tendency to act like they have won, to assume that the Oval Office is already theirs. Voters resent this and may be itching to show their independence. No. 3: Obama fatigue and classic American support for the underdog. Voters notice the number of ads, phone calls and gushing accounts of the giant Obama machine. Maybe the good old US of A instinct to support the underdog is working to McCain's benefit.

MARY BETH CAHILL

Manager of Sen. John Kerry's presidential campaign and former chief of staff to Sen. Edward Kennedy

Smart incumbents are campaigning as though their lives depend on it. Tuesday night may well bring the defeat of long-serving politicians from heretofore safe districts and states. And it may be very late before we know the leadership and chairmen of the House and Senate.

ROBERT SHRUM

Senior adviser to the Gore and Kerry presidential campaigns; fellow at NYU's Wagner School of Public Service

Obama's decision to forego public funding has enabled his Internet-fueled campaign to compete in states where he has potential but otherwise would have been forced to write off. We know what they are; look at the advertising buys. McCain has to carry a whole string of states where he is behind or effectively tied; Obama has to win in just a few. He has many routes to victory, McCain just one. Don't be surprised if some place we never thought would go Democratic does. The Obama campaign has signaled that several could -- and in the process left the other side constantly on the defensive.

Do you have any election night predictions?

Rearview Mirror

THE HORROR! HELP FIGHT THE MCCAIN/PALIN ROBOTS!

Obama on Bush-McCain Economics

OBAMA VANQUISHES MCCAIN IN FINAL DEBATE

John McCain needed both a monumental performance and an Obama catastrophe to ignite a comeback. Instead, he appeared tired and agitated, while Obama delivered his strongest performance of the three debates.

TUESDAY DEBATE: WHAT DON'T YOU KNOW AND HOW WILL YOU LEARN IT?

DARK DAYS: LEADERSHIP VACUUM AT FIRST DEBATE

It was a simple question: What do you think of this bailout plan?

Although the official subject of this first presidential debate was foreign policy and national security, let's not kid ourselves--Americans tuned in to hear at least one of the presidential candidates deliver a straight answer about how they intend lead this country--both Wall Street and Main Street--through the economic crisis.

It could have been a defining moment for either candidate--a chance to demonstrate that they are indeed an Agent of Change, a Maverick, or whatever else they might claim to be. McCain could have proven that he does have mastery over basic economics. Barack Obama could have proven that he is indeed a Washington outsider committed to reform.

Instead, both McCain and Obama acted like dime-a-dozen, poll chasing politicians, afraid of making enemies or losing votes. They resorted to sacharine rhetoric and empty promises. Vote for me! I can lower taxes, improve and expand government programs, and save the economy!

So what's next: All of the drinking fountains will pour chocolate milk?

Safe to say I am not the only Obama supporter who was sorely disappointed tonight. This was the moment he had been waiting for, a moment when his leadership was sorely needed, but instead, he took the safe bet. He leads in the polls--in particular on economic issues, and so he chose to take a soft stance on the bailout plan and hope for McCain to make a critical mistake.

Well, here's a news flash--McCain didn't make a mistake. He may not have scored a touchdown, but he didn't fumble the ball, either. In a race this close, a draw is a win for McCain, and Barack Obama may have squandered one of his opportunities to break away in this race.

As for the remainder of the debate, did either candidate say anything they haven't said a dozen times already?

Tonight, the burden of proof was on John McCain. Millions of Americans tuned in expecting him to implode, expecting Barack Obama to demonstrate that he can indeed be the leader America needs. The contrast between the two candidates should have been crystal clear. Instead, what we saw was a stubborn but experienced old man, and a young, overly confident upstart content to ride the polls. As different as they may be, both were a disappointment.

The real loser tonight was the American voter.

HAS HE DONE HIS HOMEWORK? 4 QUESTIONS FOR JOHN MCCAIN

Finished with his political theater, John McCain is now ready to resume his campaign. He will travel to Oxford, Mississippi to debate Barack Obama tonight at 9 p.m. EST.

McCain's decision earlier this week to "suspend" his campaign to address the financial crisis may prove to the largest misstep of his campaign thus far. I understand his intentions--and perhaps he was actually acting in good faith--but the notion that he had to be present to contribute to the talks in Washington is absurd, and only seemed to complicate matters.

In trying to seem above politics, McCain ended up looking desperate and unprepared. If he suffers in tonight's debate, look for his campaign to justify his performance by claiming that he was "focused on what matters--the economy," or other such nonsense.

If McCain was so integral to these talks, I'd like to see him answer these four questions tonight:

1. What is the number one risk of the proposed bailout plan?
2. What is the number one risk of not passing the proposed bailout plan?
3. What specific types of assets should the treasury purchase and why?
   
4. What is your plan for protecting the long term strength of the U.S. dollar?

If John McCain can speak specifically to these sorts of questions, then we will know that he was actually doing his homework this week. If not, then we know that the "suspension" of his campaign was a total sham.

Barack Obama will be ready with the answers, guaranteed.

VOTERS TURN TO OBAMA DURING ECONOMIC STORM

Barack Obama has surged to a 5 point lead over John McCain in the latest Gallup Daily poll. Following one of the most volatile weeks in Wall Street history, voters clearly doubt McCain's ability to steer the U.S. economy toward a recovery.

Legislators will meet next week to push through a multi-pronged government rescue effort aimed at calming markets and restoring investor confidence.

In the meantime, the Republican administration has essentially put free-market capitalism on a time out, bringing billions of dollars of private enterprise onto the U.S. balance sheet, and outlawing short sales of financial companies.

We'll see next week if this last-gasp effort on behalf of regulators helps soothe the markets.

OBAMA ON THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

Listen to Barack Obama speak at length on the U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, McCain flip-flops on bedrock Republican economic principals.

Do you feel better of now than you did eight years ago?

OBAMA & MCCAIN AT GROUND ZERO

A GUIDED TOUR OF SARAH PALIN'S HOMETOWN

CINDY MCCAIN AND THE AMAZING $300,000 DREAMCOAT!

Cindy McCain's RNC outfit? $300,000!

Is she out of her f-ing mind?

The median price of a U.S. home sold in June, 2008 was $230,900.

And they want folks to believe that it's Obama who's an elitist?

What sort of ass-backwards dreamworld are the Republican talking heads living in?

Details here.

PALIN: PIT BULL

What's the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull? Lip stick.

-Sarah Palin


I imagine Sarah Palin's RNC address surprised a lot of people. She and her entire family have suffered a week of relentless media attacks, yet tonight, she spoke confidently, assertively, and passionately in a major speech that accomplished four vital tasks:

1. She defended herself, her family, her state, and her values.
   
2. She aligned herself with small town, working class America. From this point forward, as far as the GOP will have voters believe, an attack on Sarah Palin is an attack on rural, working class American values.
3. She vigorously attacked Barack Obama, rehashing his infamous "bitter" comment in San Francisco, mocking him as a celebrity, and furthering the claim that he is an elitist.
4. She evoked admiration for John McCain, breathing fresh life into his P.O.W. mythology.

The bar for Sarah Palin was not set that high, and she took advantage of that fact tonight with a speech that most certainly defied almost all expectations.

The Democrats are in a pickle--Sarah Palin has circumvented their early attacks. She can level harsh criticisms against the Democratic ticket, and at this point, they can't do much to refute her without seeming to alienate an entire, vital demographic.

Sarah Palin created a persona tonight that will be a huge boon for the Republicans. This could spell danger for the Democrats if they don't find a way to neutralize her rhetoric.

GALLUP: OBAMA HITS 50%, UP BY EIGHT

The latest Gallup Daily Poll tracking the three day average from August 30th to September 1st shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by eight points, with 50% of registered voters favoring the Obama/Biden ticket.

TUESDAY MORNING READING: THE PALIN PICK

The New York times reports today that John McCain may have been a little careless about vetting Sarah Palin before appointing her to be his running mate:

"Aides to Mr. McCain said they had a team on the ground in Alaska now to look more thoroughly into Ms. Palin’s background. A Republican with ties to the campaign said the team assigned to vet Ms. Palin in Alaska had not arrived there until Thursday, a day before Mr. McCain stunned the political world with his vice-presidential choice."

A little hasty? You be the judge.

Palin: Dynamite, or Dud?

At several weekend gatherings, I had the chance to discuss Sarah Palin with a wide variety of progressive voters. The opinions I heard were all some variation of, Worst possible pick for McCain.

At the same time, I have to think that there has to be some method to this seemingly mad decision. I have to believe that the people in charge of such decisions must have more information than I do. So allow me to speculate on what I feel are the three major advantages of having Palin on the ticket.

First of all, Palin can mobilize disaffected voters and register new ones. The GOP can only count on a tiny handful of angry HRC supporters to defect to the Republican ticket. But there are thousands of Republican women who were probably going to sit on the sidelines for this election. Now perhaps they have a reason to vote. Ditto with evangelicals. Likewise, while the Democrats have seen surging voter registration, the Palin pick at least allows the GOP to try and recruit some young Republicans from college campuses around the country. This may be hard for some of you to believe, especially if you are reading this blog from one of the coasts, but I teach at a large, Midwestern university, crawling with thousands and thousands of young conservatives with energy to spare.

Secondly, Palin can make people pay attention. Before this pick, how many people were really going to tune into the Republican convention? How many were going to watch the Vice-Presidential debate? Palin is a strange, possibly foolish choice. But an exciting one for a lot of voters. This election just got a lot weirder (read: more historic) and millions of people will tune in to watch. Right now, the McCain camp needs every minute of face time that they can get with the American people, and Palin brings a lot of attention to the campaign--certainly more than Tom Pawlenty would have.

Lastly, Palin brings two secret ingredients to the ticket: Biography and Change. Presidential campaigns--particularly this one--are all about biography. Which candidate can we root for? Which candidate can we identify with? You might think that Palin might not fit either of these criteria--but let's face it, you are reading an Obama blog right now. Wrap your mind around the idea that there are hundreds of thousands of Americans who are thrilled with Palin, excited by the prospect of having someone in the White House who shares their values.

This election has been boiled down to one issue: Change. Until last Friday, if you wanted Change, you needed to vote Obama/Biden. Now, at least it appears, Republican voters can get that change without defecting from their party.

It may not be the sort of Change with a capital C that Barack Obama has been talking about for years now, but it's change nonetheless, even if only superficial change. For plenty of GOP voters, it might be enough to convince them that it's worth coming out to vote in this election. That alone could be dangerous.

GALLUP: OBAMA BY EIGHT

Today's Gallup poll, a three day average of interviews conducted Tuesday through Thursday, arguably the most important nights of the DNC, show Obama extending his lead over McCain to eight points.

"Obama's largest advantage at any point in the campaign was a 9-point lead recorded July 24-26, so as his party's convention concludes, he is about as strongly positioned as he has been at any point this year."

Sarah Palin, Game Changer?

You have to hand it to the Republicans--they wasted no time stealing the show. John McCain has chosen Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Will the 44-year-old Republican rising star be a game changer?

• She is the first female candidate on a GOP presidential ticket, possibly appealing to disgruntled Hillary supporters who prioritize putting a female in a higher office over individual issues.

• She is strongly against abortion rights and gay marriage, which could galvanize the Republican evangelical base.

• She is strongly in favor of opening up Alaska to drilling and pipeline construction, placing priority on balancing environmental sustainability with economic development, which earn the GOP points on energy, if not the environment.

• Most importantly, she is a relative unknown, and just about as far from Washington as you can get, which could help convince dissatisfied Republicans that change--the mantra of this election--could actually stem from the GOP.

At very least, this is going to draw a wide audience to the GOP convention next week, an event that would have been widely ignored by most Americans. Palin has actually been a personal favorite of right-wing numbnut Rush Limbaugh, who as early as February called for Palin to join the ticket.

Here's a choice Rush Limbaugh exchange from that February 28th show:

RUSH: Sarah Palin. Okay.

CALLER: Yep. She's been heralded throughout the state as being personable, likable, intelligent, strong, and conservative. And she crosses over from conservative to liberalism not in thought, but because she stands by what she believes in. And, surprisingly enough, she has been at the forefront of ethics reform in our great state --

RUSH: Yeah, plus she's a housewife, before that, she's a babe. I saw a picture.

CALLER: (laughing)

RUSH: Well, it's undeniable.

CALLER: Well, it is undeniable, and that's why the paradox is there for me. I think that because she's intelligent, number one, conservative maybe number one also, but she is photogenic, she is likable, she is engaging. When you meet her, she is interested in you, she speaks well.

RUSH: By the way, wait a second. I'm not diminishing any of those things by pointing out that she's a babe.

CALLER: Oh, no, no, no.

RUSH: The babe is the icing on the cake aspect, something the Democrats can't claim on their side.

CALLER: Exactly, especially when the highest Democrat that you can speak of is Mrs. Bill Clinton.

RUSH: You said it, not I. I just advanced the theory.

CALLER: Well, I can tell you that Governor Palin doesn't have to lift her chin up to 12 o'clock to get a good photo of her.

RUSH: I just love you. I love you, Julie. I love listening to women talk about other women like this.

CALLER: I am not berating Mrs. Bill Clinton, I am just --

RUSH: No, of course not. You are elevating Madam Palin.

CALLER: (laughing) Exactly.

RUSH: Absolutely.

CALLER: She can't take a bad picture not even from the back end.

RUSH: (laughing) She can't take a bad picture even from the back end. All of which you say is true.

Yeesh. To think that Rush Limbaugh has been the shepherd of the right in this nation for more than two decades. Wow. I think I need another cup of coffee and an aspirin.

Stay tuned...just when you thought this election could not get more historic...it did.

Seven