ELECTION NIGHT SURPRISES?
These election night predictions are courtesy of the Washington Post's "Topic A".
DICK MORRIS AND EILEEN MCGANN
Dick Morris advised Bill Clinton's 1996 reelection campaign and is a contributor to Fox News; Eileen McGann, a lawyer, is co-author with Morris of "Fleeced"
"It does not matter how wide or narrow the gap is between the two candidates. What matters is how far above or below 49 percent Obama is in the final polls (49 percent assumes that Ralph Nader gets 1 to 2 points as he did in 2004). Right now, Obama is straddling the 49 percent mark; about half the polls put him over it and half under it. If the final polling numbers indicate that Obama is not convincingly north of 49 percent, we are in for a long night."
JAMES CARVILLE
Manager of Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign; CNN political contributor
Extraordinary youth turnout will surprise many, but it shouldn't. Young voters will vote overwhelmingly Democratic up and down the ballot in record numbers. As for a surprise on Tuesday, the combination of Ralph Nader and Bob Barr's votes will affect the outcome of the presidential election in one or more states.
HEATHER WILSON
Republican representative from New Mexico
Usually, the "undecideds" who show up in polling break pretty evenly when both candidates are well known. This year's "undecideds" are generally older, more rural, voted for Bush over Kerry, and they are concerned about Obama's inexperience and liberal views. The undecideds will break toward John McCain.
ED ROGERS
White House staffer to Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush; group chairman of BGR Holding
By all accounts McCain is behind but closing in on Obama, who appears to be stronger in the electoral college than in the popular vote. It's not pretty for McCain, but it's not over. Three ingredients could be mixing to create an explosive comeback for McCain. No. 1: buyer's remorse and resentment of the media forecast. Voters are being lectured that the election is over. This might cause them to have regrets about Obama and resent being told what they had already decided. No. 2: presumptuousness by the Obama camp. More than once they have shown a tendency to act like they have won, to assume that the Oval Office is already theirs. Voters resent this and may be itching to show their independence. No. 3: Obama fatigue and classic American support for the underdog. Voters notice the number of ads, phone calls and gushing accounts of the giant Obama machine. Maybe the good old US of A instinct to support the underdog is working to McCain's benefit.
MARY BETH CAHILL
Manager of Sen. John Kerry's presidential campaign and former chief of staff to Sen. Edward Kennedy
Smart incumbents are campaigning as though their lives depend on it. Tuesday night may well bring the defeat of long-serving politicians from heretofore safe districts and states. And it may be very late before we know the leadership and chairmen of the House and Senate.
ROBERT SHRUM
Senior adviser to the Gore and Kerry presidential campaigns; fellow at NYU's Wagner School of Public Service
Obama's decision to forego public funding has enabled his Internet-fueled campaign to compete in states where he has potential but otherwise would have been forced to write off. We know what they are; look at the advertising buys. McCain has to carry a whole string of states where he is behind or effectively tied; Obama has to win in just a few. He has many routes to victory, McCain just one. Don't be surprised if some place we never thought would go Democratic does. The Obama campaign has signaled that several could -- and in the process left the other side constantly on the defensive.
Do you have any election night predictions?
