A Challenge to Florida

While the primaries in each South Carolina and Nevada are no doubt important in the race for the Democratic nod, history both recent and bygone, along with a more pressing primary, should tell us that Florida will play a key roll in this year’s elections.

At this point Senator Clinton leads Obama in the state polls by a large margin: Clinton’s 43 percent to Obama’s 21. This could be because of the large population of New York retirees in Florida or similarly because “…an electorate that skews older tends to be heavily female.” (CNN.com) In fact, women voters made up 55% of the democratic primary in Florida in 2004.

With the race in each of the other early primary states very close, these numbers may look daunting for the Obama campaign. However, a question is raised that bears attention: Could these polls reflect a population that, so far, is making their choice based on superficial rather than educated criteria? Could be.

The fact that New York Senator Clinton leads in a population made up of a great number of voters who are both female and originally from New York suggests the validity of that question, and so this post is a challenge to Florida: Read up on the candidates, become educated, and make your choice based on what you really think is good for our country. If that choice continues to be Hillary Clinton, regardless of sex and state, at least it was made for the right reasons. But become educated, above all. You might be surprised at what you find.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: HISTORY IN THE MAKING

Watch live video coverage of the New Hampshire primary from MSNBC.

Listen to live audio from National Public Radio.

The Achilles' Heel

Slate is running a three-part series examining the major weaknesses of the leading presidential candidates. The articles are worthwhile reads, brimming with interesting links.

• Rudy Giuliani--Too liberal?
• Hillary Clinton--Too cold?
  
• Barack Obama--Too inexperienced?

Also for your consideration, today's cover story from the New York Times looks back on Obama's tenure in the Illinois State Senate.

Your comments are welcome.

Obama vs. Clinton, Round 1

Hillary Clinton wasted no time attacking Barack Obama after Monday night's CNN/YouTube debate. Answering a question about foreign policy, Obama said he would try to reverse the damage done by the Bush administrations bellicose diplomacy by meeting with the leaders of nations such as Iran, Cuba, and North Korea, without conditions, within the first year of his presidency.

In her ongoing campaign to appear tough, Clinton attacked Obama the next day, declaring his policy propositions "irresponsible and naive." According to Clinton, meeting with these renegade leaders without conditions and without initial diplomatic envoys would diminish the prestige and power of the American presidency.

Oh yes. Of course. The Office of the President is so prestigious and powerful these days.

Anyway, Obama was quick to clarify his intentions. "The notion that I was somehow going to be inviting them over for tea next week without having initial envoys meet is ridiculous," he said in an interview outside his office. "But the general principle is one that I think Senator Clinton is wrong on, and that is if we are laying out preconditions that prevent us from speaking frankly to these folks, then we are continuing with Bush-Cheney policies."

Hillary obviously didn't have many qualms with Bush-Cheney policies when she authorized the president's initial authorization to go to invade Iraq.

"But that was years ago," you might say. Well, when Clinton can demonstrate that her judgement has improved since that vote, maybe she'll earn some more credibility on the Iraq issue.

In the meantime, it's the same story with the former first lady: Act tough on defense and foreign policy. It's what she thinks the voters want, and so she is willing to play that role. It's what she was doing when she authorized the invasion of Iraq. It's what she is doing now when she criticizes Barack Obama for wanting to use diplomacy instead of sanctions and warheads.

CNN\YouTube Debate Challenges Top Candidates

I have to hand it to the folks over at CNN and YouTube who put together tonight's Democratic debate live on CNN--the event was a pleasure to watch.

The debate format, which allowed "everyday Americans" to submit questions to the candidates via YouTube, offered viewers the chance to see the candidates struggle with some of the most difficult questions put to them during this campaign so far.

YouTube viewers posed questions on a broad variety of topics from Darfur to gun control, gay rights to health care, and of course, Iraq. The best part about this innovate format? Most candidates squirmed when faced with this eclectic mix of questions from concerned and curious voters.

When all is said and done, the format underscored how voters want to be spared canned soundbites from the candidates. Unfortunately, most of the candidates, particularly those in the "top tier," struggled to deviate from their stump speeches.

If any candidates came away winners in tonight's debate, it was those in the "second tier." The CNN/YouTube debate allowed Biden, Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich, and even grumpy ol' Mike Gravel a chance to let their personalities and their ideas shine.

Was the debate as "historic" as CNN would like us to believe? Only time will tell. But one thing is for sure: The format nudged candidates away from their stump rhetoric and allowed second tier candidates an opportunity to be heard. That can only be a good thing for a democracy.

Latest Polls: Obama Strongest General Election Candidate

A new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll indicates that Barack Obama would be the strongest candidate in the general election, thanks to an unlikely source of support: Republicans.

While these early polls are highly speculative and largely meaningless, it is interesting to note that Obama is the only Democratic candidate who performs well in head-to-head polls versus the three major Republican candidates.

Among the findings of the poll:

• 15 percent of Republicans say they would choose Obama in a head-to-head match- up against Rudy Giuliani. Just 3 percent of Republican respondents say they would pick Hillary Clinton in a similar contest.
• A majority of Democrats say they favor ``a candidate who can bridge partisan divides'' -- a central theme of his campaign -- over a candidate ``with long experience in government and policy making,'' a cornerstone of Clinton's self-presentation. Independents voting in the Democratic primary say they favor unity over experience by more than 2-to-1.
• 18 percent of Democratic primary voters say they couldn't vote for Clinton, the highest negative rating of any Democrat. Five percent say they couldn't vote for Obama.

In recent polls, Clinton still leads by 11 points among core Democrats, and Clinton supporters would probably point to Obama's success appeal among Republicans as evidence that he is more moderate than liberal. Yet with so many tough challenges ahead--Iraq, Afghanistan, climate change, health care, immigration--it is heartening to know that even Republicans are rallying around the one candidate who they believe can bring this country together and tackle the tough issues.

Clearly, Obama's message has been resonating among voters across the political spectrum: Partisan bickering has led us down the wrong path--It's time to come together and turn a new page in America's history.

Who Wants to be a Millionaire?

Financial disclosure forms filed by presidential candidates Wednesday show Barack Obama as the least wealthy of the top-tier presidential candidates, despite the fact that his family reported $991,000 in income last year.

It was an unusually high-flying year for the Obama family, however. $572,000 of the reported income was from Senator Obama's book sales, which surged as he gained national recognition for his leadership on issues like Iraq, alternative energy, health care, and the genocide in Darur.

The Chicago Tribue reported that Senator Obama's financial portfolio is divested of all companies that do business in Sudan.

While Obama obviously won't have to cut coupons to put food on the table, the Obama family fortune is downright meager when compared to the other candidates. Let's take a look, shall we?

• John Edwards. $479,000 last year in salary. More than $7.5 million from investments with Fortress Investment Group, a New York hedge fund. Net worth is estimated between $22 and $62 million dollars. He said he worked only a few days a month at the hedge fund, so maybe he just didn't know that Fortress owned offshore funds that served as tax havens for investors. Maybe he didn't know that the firm's portfolio included subprime lenders, which provide high-risk loans that often target minorities. Maybe he just didn't know.

• Lovely Hillary Clinton. Well, she requested a 45-day extension to file her papers. She just needed to get everything in order. I'm going to guess she's doing all right, though. As for Bubba, Former President Bill Clinton earned about $10 million in speaking fees last year.

• Speaking fees! Former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani (R) raked in $11 million by speaking at events around the globe, reminding everyone how qualified he is on issues of national security. His empire, sadly built on the ashes of the World Trade Center, is worth somewhere between $20 million and $70 million. Hate to be harsh on Rudy, but let's face it--just a few years ago his net worth topped out at about $1.8 million

• Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney became the richest candidate by buying and selling more than 180 companies through private equity funds. His net worth is somewhere between $190 million to $250 million. A healthy chunk of that money goes to the Mormon church, though. It's a rule.

• Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is married to the millionaire daughter of an Arizona beer tycoon. Pretty cool.

So many choices. Hedge fund warrior. Former first lady. Former mayor cashing in on a national tragedy. Uber-wealthy private equity Mormon. Husband of a beer princess. Best selling author.

Hmm...I do love beer. And princesses. But I can't really jive with McCain's stance on Iraq.

I'm going to have to go with the best selling author. I'm sure Senator Obama wouldn't mind if you checked his book out from the library or borrowed it from a friend.

[Full disclosure: The author, a high school teacher, earned $42,448 in 2006. He has filed for an extension to report his net worth, which he will begin to calculate once he pays off his student loans.]

Guest Commentary: Is Obama a Pixy Stik?

My good friend Adam, a frequent Blog Obama reader, prides himself on being the devil's advocate in just about any situation. In an effort to jump start the comment section of Blog Obama, Adam has submitted this scathing critique of his "beef" with Obama and his campaign.

While Adam's comments do not represent the views of Blog Obama or its moderator, I do think that he addresses a valid concern among many liberal voters. Judge for yourself.

--Chris

In order to commemorate my triumphant return to the comment section of Blog Obama '08, I submit to you the following diatribe, which is at least semi-related to the post to which I am replying.

Obama has officially become a walking, talking, campaigning Pixy Stik: he's all sugar, no substance. I don't know about you, but I like for my candidates to bring some protein to the table, or at least some dietary fiber...but all I've heard from Obama so far is a bunch of tooth-rotting palaver about what sort of POLITICIAN he ISN'T, when all I really want to know is what sort of POLICYMAKER he IS.

Of course, I may be the only person who feels this way...after all, the way that you Obama groupies have been double-fisting the Barack-flavored Kool-Aid would seem to indicate that you all can't get enough of his sweet nothings. And that's just as well, since if Mr. Pixy Stik ever gets caught in the rain without his harmonious, bi-partisan umbrella, all you're going to have left is a puddle of Kool-Aid and the soggy remains of his paper-based exoskeleton.

(For what it's worth, I would still vote for Obama over Clinton, Giuliani and McCain, because "all sugar, no substance" still beats "all turd, no substance." Sad but true.)

The National Guard is Strained, Not Obama

When Senator Barack Obama mistakenly overstated the number of deaths from last weekend's awful tornadoes in Kansas, the usual suspects wasted no time pouncing on him for the error.

"Ten thousand people died - an entire town destroyed," Obama said, late in his speech. "Turns out that the National Guard in Kansas only had 40 per cent of its equipment and they are having to slow down the recovery process."

In reality, Obama was making an important point about how the Iraq War is needlessly draining National Guard resources that are intended to be used in exactly the sort of situation we see in Kansas. Or New Orleans, for that matter.

Yet to hear mainstream media spin this, the real story here is that Barack Obama made a mistake.

"He overstated by a factor of one thousand the number of deaths from the tornado in Greenberg, Kansas," said one pill-popping conservative radio host. "They're saying he's just tired. He's just tired out there, a little fatigued."

Let us not be distracted. It is a fact that the endless stream of National Guard units sent to Iraq deplete the vital human and material assets that are so essential to saving lives and helping communities struck by natural disasters.

The real story here is that the mainstream media prefers to pick apart candidates for innocent verbal missteps instead of focusing on the truth: Resources spent on Iraq War are sorely missed here at home, and will be even more sorely missed should we suffer another devastating hurricane season.

As for the mistake, Obama understands well that it won't be the last time this happens.

"There are going to be times when I get tired," he said. "There are going to be times when I get weary. There are going to be times when I make mistakes."

In a presidential field of career politicians who relentlessly polish themselves in their quests for more power, we ought to remember that at least one candidate is a real human being with a sincere and heartfelt desire to take this country in a new direction. Obama should be applauded for his humility. Meanwhile, let's make sure that the next time disaster strikes an American community, the victims have access to every resource they need.

Obama Weekend Reading

• From the Guardian Unlimited: Obama calls for debate footage to be publicly available "for free and without restriction."

• From the Chicago Tribune: Pill-popping loud mouth Rush Limbaugh continues to bombard his audience with his patently racist "Barack the Magic Negro" song.

• From the Washington Post: Columnist Sally Quinn on why Barack Obama needs to introduce America to his staff.

• From the Associated Press: How presidential candidates pay for the private jets and charters they use to dart around the country.

In First Debate, Obama Calls Attention to Rising Black Infant Mortality

On the day that the Senate joined the House in passing a bill that would require troop withdrawals from Iraq starting October 1st, eight Democratic candidates convened at South Carolina State University for the first debate of the 2008 presidential election.

Predictably, most leading candidates stayed on message, attacking the Bush administration and defending their earlier votes to authorize the Iraq invasion.

Meanwhile, Senator Barack Obama called attention to an alarming health care crisis in the nation's south.

"This week, we saw a story that showed that black infant mortality in this country is actually

going up in some states, which is shameful and makes no sense," Obama said.

The New York Times reported on April 22nd: "In Mississippi, infant deaths among blacks rose to 17 per thousand births in 2005 from 14.2 per thousand in 2004,while those among whites rose to 6.6 per thousand from 6.1. (The national average in 2003 was 5.7 for whites and 14.0 for blacks.)"

The trend is troubling for some of the nation's leading health care experts.

While the other candidates persist in trying to explain their poor judgement in the 2002 Iraq authorization vote, Senator Obama, who has opposed the war from the start, rightfully drew attention to an urgent health care story largely neglected by the press.

In a debate full of familiar faces reciting sound bites, voters should be thankful that one leader is willing to draw attention to the issues that his colleagues are willing to ignore.

Obama Sharply Critical of Supreme Court Abortion Ruling

The Supreme Court today voted in a 5-4 decision to uphold a ban on a specific abortion practice referred to as "partial birth" abortions.

Presidential candidates' remarks on the high court's ruling fell predictably along party lines. Democratic candidates Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John Edwards all spoke out strongly against the ruling while Republican candidates Rudy Giuliani and Mit Romney praised the decision.

Senator Obama in particular was sharply critical of the ruling, stating that "this ruling signals an alarming willingness on the part of the conservative majority to disregard its prior rulings respecting a woman’s medical concerns and the very personal decisions between a doctor and patient."

The court's decision prompts speculation over whether the court will at some point in the future attempt to overrule the definitive Roe v. Wade decision.

Americans Must Aknowledge Connection Between Iraq, School Violence

After years of increasing violence and failed policy in Iraq, our President arrives at a solution: Send more troops.

"Our past efforts to secure Baghdad failed for two principal reasons: There were not enough Iraqi and American troops to secure neighborhoods that had been cleared of terrorists and insurgents. And there were too many restrictions on the troops we did have."

George W. Bush, addressing the nation on January 10, 2007, calling for a troop surge in Iraq.

After years of increasing violence and failed policy in our nation's schools, conservative pundits around the country arrive at a solution: Increased gun ownership.

"We can start letting people arm themselves and so when these people walk out, they say, whoa, I really don`t know if the security guard has got a weapon on him or the teacher has a weapon on him. We can do something about it.We do nothing about it. We just sit there and let it happen over and over again. "

Pat Brown, criminal profiler, interviewed on CNN on April 16, 2007, calling for an easing of gun restrictions to allow more people to carry weapons.

The American people and their elected leadership must wake up to the notion that the violence among our young people is a reflection of our violence and aggression overseas.

For your consideration: In its efforts to boost weak recruitment, the U.S. Army offers prospective soldiers the chance to simulate battle by downloading a free combat video game.

In a culture that celebrates and glamorizes violence, we must question what core values we want reflected in our young people, in our media, and in our foreign policy.

Consider donating to The Virginia Tech Memorial Fund.

After Virginia Tech Shootings, We Must Question Our Culture

"Today, we are a grieving and shocked nation. Violence has once again taken too many young people from this world. In Blacksburg, they were daughters. They were sons. They were our nations new leaders. We mourn them. We will miss them, and we pray for their families and the injured fighting for their lives." --Barack Obama

Today's horrific mass shooting at Virginia Tech university is a sobering reminder that we live in a nation seeped in violence and bloodshed.

Violence of this magnitude invariably leaves people scrambling for answers. What would drive someone to such a violent act? What is at the root of this awful pattern? How can we prevent tragedies like this from happening again?

As is customary at a time like this, the gun control debate is brewing, but with a new twist. Reports indicate that the Virginia Tech shooter was armed with a 9 mm handgun and a 22 caliber pistol, hardly the heavy-duty assault weaponry at the heart of most gun control debates.

Our leaders will evaluate their gun control positions and make their statements.

If any good can come out of this heinous killing, perhaps it will be that our policy makers will stop focusing on the kind of guns that killers are using in this country, and instead focus on the kind of killers that our culture is breeding.

As Campaign Evolves, Obama Must Get "Policy Serious"

Aside from well-publicized attacks from Fox News, Senator Barack Obama has faced very little scrutiny from the mainstream media. For the most part, he is hailed as a "rock star" candidate with legions of adoring supporters in tow.

Now, as the first quarter of 2007 draws to a close, the reality of a marathon campaign sets in. The mainstream media has finally shown Obama in a more realistic lens. Having experienced his first minor missteps in recent weeks, the Illinois Senator finds his star settling back to Earth, at least for the time being.

Of even greater concern, however, is the notion that Obama has thus far soared on style and alone, and that unless he takes some serious policy stances, and soon, he may find himself flying on vapors.

Cheers to the mainstream press for asking a little more of Obama at a time when he really needs to capitalize on his momentum and differentiate himself from the competition on a policy level.

When campaigns report their quarterly fundraising numbers on March 31st, Hillary Clinton should come up strong, especially following her visit to California. Naturally, speculation will percolate whether Obama can compete with the Clinton money machine, especially with so much of the campaign trail left to blaze.

This subtle change of sentiment on behalf of the mainstream media, coupled with increased fundraising pressure from Clinton, means that now is the perfect time for Obama to get serious , to satisfy those Democrats who are sitting on the fence, hungry for serious policy discussion.

What subjects can Obama tackle to set himself apart from the pack? He's proven himself on the Iraq issue. Health Care is Hillary's pet project. The economy shouldn't be a major issue until gasoline breaks above $3.00 again.

Spring Break is over, Senator Obama. Let's hear more of what you have to say about education.

Scramble for Black Voters

From the New York Times, '08 candidates face intense competition for black voters...

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/04/us/politics/04campaign.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Presidential Candidates' Iraq Positions

From The New York Times Online, here are the major candidates positions on Iraq from 2002 to present.

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/us/politics/IRAQPOSITIONS.html

Senator Obama's Lack of Experience

Having only 2 years of experience in the Senate, Barack Obama faces constant questions about his lack of experience. His response is always "I've been in Washington long enough to know it needs to change."

As the election approaches, though, how will voters interpret his lack of experience on Capitol Hill? Will voters be eager to vote for a relative newcomer to the scene, or will they seek out a Washington insider like Hillary Clinton?